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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."